China’s gold purchases appear far higher than official data as estimates indicate large hidden acquisitions, global central banks accelerate gold buying while gold prices soar, and falling dollar reserves raise expectations that a multipolar settlement system may already be emerging.
China’s reported gold purchases diverge sharply from independent estimates, indicating potential large-scale underreporting. Official data for September 2025 lists 1.2 tonnes of gold added to reserves, while Goldman Sachs estimates real acquisitions at 15 tonnes. A similar gap appears in April, where reported 1.9 tonnes contrasts with an estimated 27 tonnes, suggesting a systematic pattern rather than statistical discrepancy.
Officially, China holds 2,304 tonnes of gold—7.7% of its reserves—and claims to have added only 24.9 tonnes through October 2025. However, estimated real purchases between 180 and 320 tonnes imply total reserves likely already exceed 3,000 tonnes. At this pace, China could surpass 4,000 tonnes within three years, enough to support a gold-anchored settlement mechanism spanning a significant share of global trade.
These trends mirror broader global dynamics: central bank gold purchases reached 634 tonnes through September, with September’s 64 tonnes tripling August’s volume. Gold prices have climbed 146% since October 2022, while central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. With the dollar’s share of global reserves falling to 58%, upcoming IMF reserve data on December 19th may signal whether a multipolar currency framework is transitioning from concept to active operation.
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