Brazil has officially begun the 2025/26 sugarcane crushing season, with output in central and southern regions expected to remain high at 42 million tons. Despite past fluctuations due to weather and production strategies, sugar production has steadily recovered in recent years. Continued stability will depend on climate conditions and the balance between sugar and ethanol in Brazil’s dual-track system.
BRICS bridge- Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, officially kicked off the 2025/26 crushing season on April 1. According to data from industry analysts, the sugar output of Brazil’s main producing areas (central and southern regions) is expected to reach 42 million tons for the 2025/26 season, an increase of about 200,000 tons, or about 5%, compared to the 39.98 million tons of the 2024/25 season.
Looking back at historical data, the sugar output in Brazil’s central and southern regions has fluctuated over the past 15 years. From the 2010/11 to 2016/17 seasons, sugar output fluctuated between 31 million and 36 million tons. Then, in the 2018/19 season, it dropped significantly to a low of 26.5 million tons, mainly due to weather factors, decreased cane yield, and adjustments in sugar mill production strategies. The output gradually increased from the 2019/20 season, especially reaching 38.5 million tons in the 2020/21 season. The 2023/24 season saw a further increase to 42.4 million tons, a recent peak.
Looking ahead to the 2025/26 season, the sugar output in Brazil’s main producing areas is expected to remain high at 42 million tons, indicating the relative stability of the sugar production capacity in the central and southern regions of Brazil. However, it should be noted that the stability of future sugar output will still depend on weather conditions, adjustments in cane planting, and the balance of interests between domestic biofuel (ethanol) and sugar production in Brazil. This is because Brazil’s sugar cane industry operates on a dual-track system of sugar and ethanol production.
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